The Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) has released its latest gas inquiry report, indicating an expected gas supply surplus of between 2 and 24 petajoules (PJ) for the east coast in the first quarter of 2026. This surplus is dependent on the amount of uncontracted gas that LNG producers choose to export.

ACCC Commissioner Anna Brakey noted that Queensland LNG producers have reported a reduction in contracted LNG exports, leading to an anticipated availability of 22 PJ of uncontracted gas for domestic buyers. However, concerns remain regarding the sufficiency of domestic gas supply, prompting the ACCC to monitor how this gas is offered to local users.

Despite the positive outlook for the east coast, the supply-demand situation in the southern states remains tight. For the first time, southern gas producers do not expect to produce surplus gas during the typically low-demand period of the first quarter, which could hinder the replenishment of gas storage facilities ahead of winter 2026.

The report also highlights that while gas suppliers and users have signed more long-term supply agreements for 2026 and 2027, the total amount of gas secured under these contracts is still below pre-2022 levels, with most contracts lasting only one year. Prices for gas supply in 2026 have eased slightly, with producers offering an average of $13.12 per gigajoule (GJ).

Furthermore, the ACCC reviewed the impact of various gas policy measures, including the Gas Market Code and the Australian Domestic Gas Security Mechanism (ADGSM). The findings suggest that while these measures have added some gas to the local market, they have not significantly improved outcomes for gas users. The ACCC warns that without addressing the underlying causes of inadequate supply and competition, the effectiveness of these policies may be limited.

The ACCC's ongoing inquiry, initially directed by the Australian Government in 2017, has been extended to 2030, with quarterly reporting to ensure transparency and efficiency in the gas market.