The Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) has released its latest gas inquiry report, forecasting that while overall gas supply on Australia’s east coast will be sufficient in the second quarter of 2026, the southern states will depend on surplus gas from Queensland and gas storage to meet their demand.

According to the report, gas producers predict a range of outcomes for the east coast gas market, with a potential surplus of 15 petajoules (PJ) or a shortfall of 8 PJ, contingent on the volume of uncontracted gas exported by Queensland-based LNG producers. The southern states are expected to require an additional 26 PJ of gas during this period.

ACCC Commissioner Anna Brakey highlighted that the gap between gas demand and supply from southern sources has widened due to reduced production from legacy gas fields and increased demand for gas-powered electricity generation. To address this, some of Queensland’s surplus gas will need to be transported to the southern states.

As of December 22, 2025, Victoria’s Iona gas storage facility is projected to need approximately 12 PJ of gas injections before May 2026 to prepare for the winter season.

Gas prices have remained stable, with contracted prices around $13-15 per gigajoule (GJ). However, there has been a notable increase in short-term contracts, which rose by 78% in the first half of 2025 compared to the previous year. This shift has raised concerns among commercial and industrial gas users regarding the predictability and stability of gas supply.

The ACCC has also released findings on long-run gas production costs, indicating that production costs are likely to rise over time without new gas supply sources. Additionally, the ACCC is reviewing the methodology for calculating LNG netback prices to ensure accuracy for market participants.

Lastly, the ACCC has developed draft voluntary best practice retailer selling guidance, following a review that identified shortcomings in retailers' selling practices. This guidance is open for public comment until February 27, 2026.