The Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) has released its latest gas inquiry report, indicating that the east coast gas market may face a tight supply-demand balance in the third quarter of 2026. The report forecasts a potential shortfall of up to 12 petajoules (PJ) or a surplus of 3 PJ, depending on the volume of uncontracted gas exported by liquid natural gas (LNG) producers.

Particularly in the southern states, including Victoria, New South Wales, South Australia, Tasmania, and the Australian Capital Territory, additional gas will be required every month from April to September 2026. The Iona Underground Gas Storage facility in Melbourne is expected to be at full capacity by early May, which is crucial for meeting the anticipated demand.

ACCC Chair Gina Cass-Gottlieb highlighted the importance of maximizing storage capacity ahead of winter, noting a projected supply gap of 16 PJ in July 2026. The report also suggests that support from LNG producers may be necessary to alleviate pressure on storage facilities.

Gas prices for 2026 have seen an increase, with long-term contract prices rising by an average of 4% to $13.55 per gigajoule (GJ). Retailer prices have also increased, although they remain lower than the peaks experienced in 2022-23. The report indicates that international market conditions, particularly conflicts in the Middle East, may further influence domestic gas prices and supply.

The ACCC will continue to monitor these developments and publish LNG netback prices to enhance transparency in the market. The inquiry into the gas market, which began in 2017, is set to continue until June 2030, following a directive from the Australian Treasurer.