The Latvian competition authority (KP) has completed an initial investigation into the changes in fuel prices at the start of 2026. This analysis involved reviewing information provided by market participants, procurement prices, and trends in international markets.

KP concluded that the rise in fuel prices during the first quarter of 2026 was driven by objective external circumstances, particularly the geopolitical situation and the associated rapid increase in oil product prices in international markets. This directly impacted fuel procurement prices.

The initial data analysis by KP indicates a similar price change dynamic in the market, but does not suggest coordinated anti-competitive actions among market participants. The similar price changes can be explained by identical external economic factors affecting all retailers simultaneously.

Information available to KP does not indicate that the price increase was related to an increase in retail markups. In fact, the most significant increase observed in the first quarter of 2026 was in the procurement price component: approximately 39% for gasoline and about 70% for diesel fuel.

Additionally, KP noted that the price dynamics in Latvia do not significantly differ from those in other Baltic states and the EU, indicating a common influence of external factors.

According to KP, active competition remains in the fuel retail market, characterized by high consumer price sensitivity, which compels fuel retailers to offer price promotions and loyalty programs even amid rapid price increases.

KP will continue to monitor this market and will also keep an eye on the actions of fuel retailers regarding the reduction of excise tax on diesel fuel and its transfer to final prices, publishing findings on its website.